Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 47¢ · $5K held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.8K
$3.75
46.2¢ → 47¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
708h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CarCTR | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$22.72 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 SocialistaCTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $235 | $230 | +$0 | 63% 2725-1611 (4336) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $160.82 | $165.77 | +$4.94 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $145.49 | $163.23 | +$21.29 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $41.43 | $41.66 | +$0.23 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
CarCTRInvested
$4,230.93
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$22.72
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
SocialistaCTRInvested
$235
Value
$230
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
2725-1611 (4336)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$160.82
Value
$165.77
PnL
+$4.94
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$145.49
Value
$163.23
PnL
+$21.29
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$41.43
Value
$41.66
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.