Consensus PnL -$3.2K · win rate 63% (2757–1591, n=4348) · was PM monthly #984 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.2K
Record
2757W / 1591L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 4348 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1003
Source
PM monthly #984
Trades
1,545
Markets
4,913
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 11 on the consensus side (82%)- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $2.4K · now 72¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $1.2K · now 85¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?Yes $996 · now 39¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes $532 · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $401 · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over $361 · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-3.5)Real Racing Club $231 · now 76¢ · in at 77¢against the consensus (Real Madrid CF)
- Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?Yes $230 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
4,214 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 65¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 71% of 2501 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +7%
- MMA
+6 pts
side won 68% of 340 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +11%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 63% of 997 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 62% of 69 at an average 67¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 23% of 470)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 45% of 581)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 66% of 1138)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 88% of 2025)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.