Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 47¢ · $465 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$465.4
$1.93
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $968.05 | $412.89 | +$71.56 | 35% 17632-33001 (50633) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $150.9 | $231.26 | +$203.56 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.9¢ | $220.31 | $181.63 | -$132.01 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.9¢ | $23.78 | $29.17 | +$6.33 | 50% 1258-1276 (2534) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $26.15 | $21.4 | -$4.75 | 18% 4232-19927 (24159) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $1.58 | $1.94 | +$0.35 | 17% 281-1392 (1673) |
Invested
$968.05
Value
$412.89
PnL
+$71.56
Record
35%
17632-33001 (50633)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.78
Value
$29.17
PnL
+$6.33
Record
50%
1258-1276 (2534)
2B9S<$100Invested
$26.15
Value
$21.4
PnL
-$4.75
Record
18%
4232-19927 (24159)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$0.35
Record
17%
281-1392 (1673)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.