Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.0K
$53.75
94.3¢ → 97.2¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 92¢ | $965.92 | $938.39 | +$49.75 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $431.12 | $431.35 | +$0.22 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 Talophex | Noavg 96.5¢ | $289.5 | $291.45 | +$1.95 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 wish- | Noavg 95.3¢ | $232.18 | $236.8 | +$4.62 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $66.54 | $63.76 | -$2.78 | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
Invested
$965.92
Value
$938.39
PnL
+$49.75
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Tenebrus7Invested
$431.12
Value
$431.35
PnL
+$0.22
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
TalophexInvested
$289.5
Value
$291.45
PnL
+$1.95
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
wish-Invested
$232.18
Value
$236.8
PnL
+$4.62
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100Invested
$66.54
Value
$63.76
PnL
-$2.78
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.