Consensus PnL $119K · win rate 66% (432–218, n=650) · hand-picked wallet · holds 47 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$118.6K
Record
432W / 218L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 650 settled
Batting Avg
58.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#888
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
40,400
Markets
1,510
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
47 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 47 on the consensus side (53%)- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $12K · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes $9.0K · now 90¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $3.7K · now 74¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 68¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.8K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $2.8K · now 72¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 74¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.8K · now 71¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
Specialties
1,104 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 57¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 60% of 693 · avg entry 56¢
ROI 0%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 66% of 126 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 71% of 51 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 47% of 36 at an average 50¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 8% of 391)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 49% of 69)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 69% of 95)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 97% of 549)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.