Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 82% (734–164, n=898) · hand-picked wallet · holds 40 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.7K
Record
734W / 164L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 898 settled
Batting Avg
66.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#380
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
39,638
Markets
1,626
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
40 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 40 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $16K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $16K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No $13K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $12K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $11K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $8.6K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $7.6K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $5.9K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
Specialties
1,338 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 83¢- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 93% of 86 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 85% of 54 · avg entry 82¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 78% of 51 at an average 82¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 7% of 107)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 33% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 63% of 83)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 96% of 1103)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.