Consensus PnL $3.9K · win rate 59% (399–279, n=678) · was PM monthly #999 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.9K
Record
399W / 279L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 678 settled
Batting Avg
80.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1251
Source
PM monthly #999
Record (90 d)
17/222 · 8%
Trades
585
Markets
833
Volume
$448.0K
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 28 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $420 · now 11¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (88% of 34)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $215 · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 118)
- Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes $144 · now 11¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?Yes $122 · now 65¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $100 · now 14¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (88% of 40)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $79 · now 27¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?Yes $61 · now 10¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?No $56 · now 56¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
584 settled consensus markets · held side won 17% at an average entry of 18¢- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 16% of 95 · avg entry 13¢
ROI +1%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 14% of 14 · avg entry 8¢
ROI 0%
- Culture
+3 pts
side won 15% of 52 · avg entry 13¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 5% of 41 at an average 11¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 78%(won 3% of 454)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 36% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 70% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 90% of 58)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.