Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$5.4K
$1.4K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FU Fulgurator | Noavg 54.7¢ | $3.9K | $5.3K | +$1.4K | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $7.5 | $64 | +$56.5 | 47% 2036-2280 (4316) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $53.78 | $26.63 | -$27.15 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $9.26 | $9.99 | +$0.73 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 DOG-UndressedVersionCTR<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $48.81 | $2.62 | -$13.86 | 51% 2279-2148 (4427) |
Invested
$3,876.27
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$64
PnL
+$56.5
Record
47%
2036-2280 (4316)
Invested
$53.78
Value
$26.63
PnL
-$27.15
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100Invested
$9.26
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.73
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
DOG-UndressedVersionCTR<$100Invested
$48.81
Value
$2.62
PnL
-$13.86
Record
51%
2279-2148 (4427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.