Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 84% (902–176, n=1078) · was PM monthly #190 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.9K
Record
902W / 176L
Win Rate
84.0%
of 1078 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#354
Source
PM monthly #190
Trades
1,721
Markets
4,077
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?No $213 · now 84¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Yes $24 · now 56¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
598 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 75¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 73% of 162 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 97% of 39 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +10%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 94% of 33 · avg entry 92¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 90% of 10 at an average 92¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 10% of 90)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 40% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 63% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 72%(won 95% of 430)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.