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Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 63% (50–30, n=80) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 7 consensus positions
0x2128f011...56c1f203Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$14.5K
Record
50W / 30L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 80 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1039
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
51
Markets
105
Volume
$71.1K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?No $460 · now 79¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?Yes $232 · now 68¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Yes $144 · now 51¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?No $101 · now 66¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No $99 · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Yes $43 · now 35¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes $10 · now 26¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
53 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 45¢- Elections
+42 pts
side won 78% of 23 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +18%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 59% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 70% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 94% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.