Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$3.3K
-$66.61
94.1¢ → 92.4¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$62.79 | 88% 212-28 (240) |
AV aviato | Noavg 91.9¢ | $484.59 | $480.47 | -$4.12 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $82.8 | $83.16 | +$0.36 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $65.52 | $64.68 | -$0.84 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $50.56 | $51.33 | +$0.78 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
Invested
$2,667.55
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$62.79
Record
88%
212-28 (240)
Invested
$484.59
Value
$480.47
PnL
-$4.12
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$83.16
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
archaic<$100Invested
$65.52
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$0.84
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$50.56
Value
$51.33
PnL
+$0.78
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.