Consensus PnL $89K · win rate 92% (102–9, n=111) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$89.2K
Record
102W / 9L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 111 settled
Batting Avg
49.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#207
Source
PM monthly #989 + pinned
Trades
5,734
Markets
292
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 23 on the consensus side (100%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $63K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $60K · now 98¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $57K · now 98¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $46K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $29K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $28K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $23K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $14K · now 54¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
Specialties
240 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 83¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 98% of 96 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +6%
- Mentions
+23 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +22%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 88% of 24 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +18%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 88% of 25 at an average 88¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 8% of 24)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 33% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 93% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 99% of 196)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.