Consensus PnL $166K · win rate 88% (1289–176, n=1465) · hand-picked wallet · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$166.2K
Record
1289W / 176L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 1465 settled
Batting Avg
81.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#265
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
227,657
Markets
2,502
Volume
$10.4M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 53 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No $9.4K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (37% of 27)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $8.7K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $6.8K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Yes $6.0K · now 99¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?No $6.0K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No $4.7K · now 89¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (55% of 20)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $4.6K · now 81¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $4.2K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
Specialties
1,740 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Elections
+3 pts
side won 82% of 936 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 84% of 306 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 77% of 193 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 75% of 12 at an average 76¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 4% of 275)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 30% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 72% of 68)
- 70¢ and up: 79%(won 98% of 1370)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.