Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.1K
$729.43
2.7¢ → 4.3¢
+55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $602.51 | $1.2K | +$623.19 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $330.37 | $421.22 | +$90.86 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $395.57 | $411.51 | +$15.95 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $38.44 | $37.78 | -$0.66 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.42 | $0.51 | +$0.09 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$602.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$623.19
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$330.37
Value
$421.22
PnL
+$90.86
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
NooseracCTRInvested
$395.57
Value
$411.51
PnL
+$15.95
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$38.44
Value
$37.78
PnL
-$0.66
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.