Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 16¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$566.19
22.8¢ → 15.5¢
-32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
1235h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 seal7CTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.1K | $759.31 | -$365.63 | 49% 287-300 (587) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $338.23 | $268.17 | -$66.19 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
 PaddyAlphaARB<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $243.01 | $239.52 | -$3.49 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76¢ | $142.51 | $158.45 | +$15.94 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $116.55 | $81.07 | -$19.43 | |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $240.05 | $131.29 | -$108.76 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $69.05 | $43.45 | -$25.6 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
seal7CTRInvested
$1,124.94
Value
$759.31
PnL
-$365.63
Record
49%
287-300 (587)
Invested
$338.23
Value
$268.17
PnL
-$66.19
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100Invested
$243.01
Value
$239.52
PnL
-$3.49
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Both legs:
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$240.05
Value
$131.29
PnL
-$108.76
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$69.05
Value
$43.45
PnL
-$25.6
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.