Consensus PnL $120K · win rate 52% (287–264, n=551) · PM monthly #364 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$120.2K
Record
287W / 264L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 551 settled
Batting Avg
70.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1630
Source
PM monthly #364
Trades
1,456
Markets
794
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 17 on the consensus side (76%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $18K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $12K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.3K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $4.6K · now 68¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $4.2K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes $2.4K · now 76¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $2.2K · now 77¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?No $1.5K · now 76¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
525 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 44¢- Elections
+16 pts
side won 62% of 229 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +12%
- Tech
+12 pts
side won 47% of 34 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +18%
- Politics
+9 pts
side won 48% of 27 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 44% of 89 at an average 48¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 12% of 210)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 49% of 78)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 87% of 76)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 93% of 161)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.