Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$6.7K
$15.38
81¢ → 81.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Noavg 81¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$32.96 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $509.45 | $482.64 | -$13.4 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $493.26 | $479.93 | -$13.33 | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
PI pilimiliCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $302.33 | $310.73 | +$8.4 | 62% 151-91 (242) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $40 | $40.5 | +$0.75 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
Invested
$5,339.92
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$32.96
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$509.45
Value
$482.64
PnL
-$13.4
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
justdanceCTRInvested
$493.26
Value
$479.93
PnL
-$13.33
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Invested
$302.33
Value
$310.73
PnL
+$8.4
Record
62%
151-91 (242)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$40
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$0.75
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.