Consensus PnL $1.6M · win rate 52% (1880–1713, n=3593) · PM monthly #525 · holds 42 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.6M
Record
1880W / 1713L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 3593 settled
Batting Avg
50.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1610
Source
PM monthly #525
Trades
2,276
Markets
5,596
Volume
$49.0M
Top consensus positions
42 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 42 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $172K · now 93¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $18K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?No $13K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?Yes $9.5K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?No $9.2K · now 95¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1?No $8.2K · now 100¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
2,351 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 54% of 2255 · avg entry 52¢
ROI 0%
- NFL
+6 pts
side won 59% of 17 · avg entry 53¢
ROI −8%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 77% of 13 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 9% of 253)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 44% of 724)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 55% of 981)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 97% of 393)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.