Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 66% (150–78, n=228) · PM monthly #814 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.1K
Record
150W / 78L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 228 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#899
Source
PM monthly #814
Trades
423
Markets
421
Volume
$389.5K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 26 on the consensus side (27%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $5.1K · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?Yes $4.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?Up $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 26-November 1?Yes $672 · now 8¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?Yes $546 · now 12¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $489 · now 6¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?No $484 · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in November?Yes $483 · now 19¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
164 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 65¢- Finance
+52 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +44%
- Crypto
+18 pts
side won 85% of 151 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 53% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 75% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 82% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 100% of 102)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.