Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $32K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$32.1K
-$12.23
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
669h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03 033033033 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.9K | $29.9K | -$10.67 | 98% 529-9 (538) |
 poorersob | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0.55 | 72% 1086-426 (1512) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$1.17 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $35.56 | $35.68 | +$0.13 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.97 | +$0.04 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
Invested
$29,905.71
Value
$29.9K
PnL
-$10.67
Record
98%
529-9 (538)
poorersobInvested
$1,107.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0.55
Record
72%
1086-426 (1512)
Invested
$1,012.39
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$1.17
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$35.56
Value
$35.68
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.