Consensus PnL $1.7M · win rate 48% (186–198, n=384) · PM monthly #5 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.7M
Record
186W / 198L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 384 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1887
Source
PM monthly #5
Trades
343
Markets
410
Volume
$36.5M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 19 on the consensus side (42%)- Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $54 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
186 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+44 pts
side won 100% of 149 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +47%
- NFL
+42 pts
side won 87% of 23 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 80% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 97% of 72)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 100% of 86)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 100% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.