Consensus PnL $61K · win rate 81% (384–92, n=476) · hand-picked wallet · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$61.3K
Record
384W / 92L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 476 settled
Batting Avg
49.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#404
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
60,043
Markets
1,408
Volume
$7.1M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 16 on the consensus side (100%)- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No $30K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $6.9K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.1K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $1.1K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
Specialties
768 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 84¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 95% of 564 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 96% of 26 · avg entry 93¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 75% of 16 · avg entry 72¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 88% of 17 at an average 90¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 40% of 53)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 79% of 48)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 86% of 69)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 99% of 598)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.