Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$24.2K
$313.99
98.6¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $13.2K | $13.5K | +$277.72 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$39 | 54% 786-659 (1445) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$2.53 | 93% 1314-105 (1419) |
CA Candela | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$2.02 | 97% 426-11 (437) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $110.01 | $111.66 | +$1.82 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
Invested
$13,201.79
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$277.72
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$5,958
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$39
Record
54%
786-659 (1445)
FacaieInvested
$3,284.02
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$2.53
Record
93%
1314-105 (1419)
Invested
$1,347.3
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$2.02
Record
97%
426-11 (437)
Invested
$110.01
Value
$111.66
PnL
+$1.82
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.