Consensus PnL $2.8K · win rate 65% (708–387, n=1095) · was PM monthly #927 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.8K
Record
708W / 387L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 1095 settled
Batting Avg
54.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#923
Source
PM monthly #927
Trades
7,455
Markets
3,744
Volume
$10.5M
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 26 on the consensus side (92%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $3.5K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?Yes $3.5K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $3.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.9K · now 99¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2?Yes $2.1K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 October 26-November 1?No $1.9K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1?No $1.8K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
Specialties
1,064 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 74¢- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 98% of 768 · avg entry 92¢
ROI −1%
- Tech
+15 pts
side won 75% of 20 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +30%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 53% of 19 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 19% of 208 at an average 20¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 6% of 194)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 69% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 76% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 99% of 759)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.