Consensus PnL $2.8K · win rate 97% (416–11, n=427) · was PM monthly #823 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.8K
Record
416W / 11L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 427 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#118
Source
PM monthly #823
Trades
40
Markets
466
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 9 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $11K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 1?Yes $6.0K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 26-November 1?No $1.9K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1?No $1.3K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?No $997 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 26-November 1?No $994 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 26-November 1?No $899 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
437 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 99¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Candela's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 100% of 434)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.