Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $633 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$632.86
-$0.61
77.2¢ → 84.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
246h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GonTanaka | Noavg 70¢ | $186.8 | $226.95 | +$38.82 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 79.8¢ | $197.61 | $195.31 | -$2.3 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 86.1¢ | $124.78 | $123.23 | -$2.27 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $82.07 | $55.27 | -$37.46 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $29.49 | $32.1 | +$2.6 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
GonTanakaInvested
$186.8
Value
$226.95
PnL
+$38.82
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$197.61
Value
$195.31
PnL
-$2.3
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
DEGENKHANInvested
$124.78
Value
$123.23
PnL
-$2.27
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$82.07
Value
$55.27
PnL
-$37.46
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Invested
$29.49
Value
$32.1
PnL
+$2.6
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.