Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 66% (160–83, n=243) · was PM monthly #163 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.4K
Record
160W / 83L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 243 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#897
Source
PM monthly #163
Trades
73
Markets
371
Volume
$174.4K
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?No $240 · now 92¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?No $227 · now 85¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No $207 · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $194 · now 92¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (53% of 16)
- Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?No $166 · now 73¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No $90 · now 84¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?No $84 · now 62¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?No $77 · now 62¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (79% of 15)
Specialties
166 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 65¢- Science
+4 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +18%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 52% of 21 at an average 66¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 9% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 20% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 56% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 86% of 96)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.