Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $573 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$573.29
$30.04
0.5¢ → 0.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
556h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $165.81 | $208.46 | +$42.65 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $163.68 | $180.05 | +$16.37 | 67% 300-145 (445) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $120 | $165 | +$45 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $92.66 | $18.79 | -$73.88 | 11% 20-165 (185) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $1.2 | $1 | -$0.1 | 42% 2258-3075 (5333) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$165.81
Value
$208.46
PnL
+$42.65
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTRInvested
$163.68
Value
$180.05
PnL
+$16.37
Record
67%
300-145 (445)
Invested
$120
Value
$165
PnL
+$45
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$92.66
Value
$18.79
PnL
-$73.88
Record
11%
20-165 (185)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
42%
2258-3075 (5333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.