Consensus PnL -$74K · win rate 71% (303–122, n=425) · PM monthly #611 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-74.1K
Record
303W / 122L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 425 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#698
Source
PM monthly #611
Trades
1,111
Markets
560
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $4.1K · now 13¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.7K · now 5¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.2K · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $946 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $162 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
466 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 63¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 70% of 124 · avg entry 67¢
ROI −1%
- MMA
+3 pts
side won 57% of 79 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +9%
- Other Sports
+7 pts
side won 69% of 16 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +42%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 55% of 104 at an average 58¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 20% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 32% of 104)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 66% of 93)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 93% of 203)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.