Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $55 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$55.5
-$307.98
0.3¢ → 0.1¢
-85% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
19 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 saintaphextwinCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $279.05 | $34.88 | -$241.88 | 39% 397-627 (1024) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $20.25 | $10.13 | -$10.13 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
CH chizidahuCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $40 | $10 | -$30 | 41% 357-508 (865) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.3 | $0.3 | -$15.53 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $10.63 | $0.19 | -$10.44 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
saintaphextwinCTRInvested
$279.05
Value
$34.88
PnL
-$241.88
Record
39%
397-627 (1024)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$10.13
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$40
Value
$10
PnL
-$30
Record
41%
357-508 (865)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$15.53
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$10.44
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.