Consensus PnL -$183K · win rate 41% (342–493, n=835) · PM monthly #502 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-182.8K
Record
342W / 493L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 835 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2080
Source
PM monthly #502
Trades
108
Markets
910
Volume
$3.5M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over $5.5K · now 55¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (29% of 25)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $300 · now 74¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $10 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
471 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+38 pts
side won 90% of 157 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +39%
- Esports
+36 pts
side won 88% of 135 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +37%
- NBA
+29 pts
side won 94% of 52 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +24%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 43% of 23 at an average 50¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 44% of 34)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 77% of 183)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 86% of 200)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 89% of 54)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.