Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 41% (427–620, n=1047) · PM monthly #384 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.0K
Record
427W / 620L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 1047 settled
Batting Avg
87.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2079
Source
PM monthly #384
Trades
468
Markets
1,098
Volume
$3.2M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 19 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $41K · now 23¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $32K · now 8¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $24K · now 6¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $19K · now 89¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $15K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $11K · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $10K · now 75¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
- Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $4.2K · now 16¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
479 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 47¢- Esports
+42 pts
side won 93% of 300 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +47%
- Other Sports
+50 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +51%
- Soccer
+43 pts
side won 80% of 142 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 61% of 76)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 96% of 188)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 95% of 181)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 88% of 34)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.