Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$243.85

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 58.5¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,828

Combined PnL+$302.9

No2 traders

Total Value$797.05

Total Shares1,921

Combined PnL-$59.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 40.3¢	$609.9	$884.66	+$274.77	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
clazzy1	Yesavg 56.4¢	$741.84	$769.97	+$28.13	62% 413-249 (662)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$589.85	$545.08	-$44.77	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$310.32	$278.9	-$22.34	39% 175-269 (444)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62¢	$172.32	$162.59	-$9.73
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$128.92	$116.31	-$12.61
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 51.6¢	$266.25	$251.97	-$14.28	36% 16072-28083 (44155)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$609.9

Value

$884.66

PnL

+$274.77

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$741.84

Value

$769.97

PnL

+$28.13

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$589.85

Value

$545.08

PnL

-$44.77

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$310.32

Value

$278.9

PnL

-$22.34

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Both legs:

Yes$172.3262¢-$9.73

No$128.9246¢-$12.61

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$266.25

Value

$251.97

PnL

-$14.28

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.5%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$65.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

165.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.