Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2026 AFC North?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.7K
$19.56
36¢ → 42.5¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $497.52 | $580.44 | +$82.92 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 66¢ | $659.99 | $569.99 | -$85 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $866.82 | $227.16 | -$102.08 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $23.38 | $192.9 | +$94.52 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $56.26 | $84.45 | +$29.2 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
NooseracCTRInvested
$497.52
Value
$580.44
PnL
+$82.92
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
StudyPredictionInvested
$659.99
Value
$569.99
PnL
-$85
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$866.82
Value
$227.16
PnL
-$102.08
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTRInvested
$23.38
Value
$192.9
PnL
+$94.52
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$56.26
Value
$84.45
PnL
+$29.2
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.