Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$10.2K
$2.0K
65.5¢ → 84¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
1259h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
25 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 yen4u | Noavg 65.3¢ | $7.4K | $9.5K | +$1.9K | 86% 809-136 (945) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $386.33 | $354.23 | -$32.1 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 Nostdam | Noavg 64¢ | $92.93 | $121.97 | +$26.14 | 54% 1434-1230 (2664) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $87.36 | $98.15 | +$10.78 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $42.25 | $42 | -$0.25 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
yen4uInvested
$7,415.74
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$386.33
Value
$354.23
PnL
-$32.1
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
NostdamInvested
$92.93
Value
$121.97
PnL
+$26.14
Record
54%
1434-1230 (2664)
Invested
$87.36
Value
$98.15
PnL
+$10.78
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$42.25
Value
$42
PnL
-$0.25
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.