Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 49% (772–788, n=1560) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$64.3K
Record
772W / 788L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 1560 settled
Batting Avg
63.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1835
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
36,004
Markets
2,855
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $710 · now 44¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (63% of 64)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $669 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No $122 · now 84¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $77 · now 11¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?No $60 · now 91¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes $2 · now 3¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,930 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 46¢- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 62% of 160 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +9%
- Tech
+11 pts
side won 64% of 97 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +7%
- Esports
+8 pts
side won 69% of 152 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 46% of 61 at an average 54¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 10% of 778)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 43% of 249)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 72% of 325)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 95% of 578)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.