Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 52¢ · $729 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$728.66
$164.32
38.8¢ → 52¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
45h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 39.3¢ | $320.42 | $412.35 | +$94.93 | 41% 2002-2837 (4839) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $83.27 | $97.74 | +$14.47 | 41% 1407-2028 (3435) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 23.5¢ | $31.96 | $70.56 | +$38.6 | 66% 918-479 (1397) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $59.37 | $66.63 | +$7.26 | 41% 1299-1888 (3187) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $69.38 | $52.26 | +$1.23 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $21.28 | $29.12 | +$7.84 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
TimeTravelerInvested
$320.42
Value
$412.35
PnL
+$94.93
Record
41%
2002-2837 (4839)
probability<$100Invested
$83.27
Value
$97.74
PnL
+$14.47
Record
41%
1407-2028 (3435)
Invested
$31.96
Value
$70.56
PnL
+$38.6
Record
66%
918-479 (1397)
Invested
$59.37
Value
$66.63
PnL
+$7.26
Record
41%
1299-1888 (3187)
Invested
$69.38
Value
$52.26
PnL
+$1.23
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$29.12
PnL
+$7.84
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.