Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.1K
$23.84
93.2¢ → 96.9¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 94.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$51.77 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $774.89 | $837.46 | +$71.21 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $29.04 | $32.72 | +$4.02 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $123.37 | $17.34 | -$106.03 | 37% 176-294 (470) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $3.38 | $6.19 | +$2.87 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,200.5
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$51.77
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$774.89
Value
$837.46
PnL
+$71.21
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$29.04
Value
$32.72
PnL
+$4.02
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
crypto-basenjiCTRInvested
$123.37
Value
$17.34
PnL
-$106.03
Record
37%
176-294 (470)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$2.87
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.