Consensus PnL $3.3K · win rate 37% (139–238, n=377) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.3K
Record
139W / 238L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 377 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2137
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
4,809
Markets
578
Volume
$481.1K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 7 on the consensus side (57%)- US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes $922 · now 21¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (50% of 15)
- Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?Yes $150 · now 20¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $25 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (96% of 24)
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?Yes $17 · now 3¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $8 · now 74¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (53% of 31)
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $4 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Trump meets with Putin by November 30?No $2 · now 17¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
345 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 40¢- Elections
+11 pts
side won 44% of 66 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +12%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 52% of 118 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 40% of 85 · avg entry 37¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 33% of 12 at an average 40¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI +7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 45%(won 17% of 154)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 40% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 65% of 74)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 87% of 67)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.