Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $792 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$792.07
$301.41
0.6¢ → 0.9¢
+52% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $232.79 | $314.85 | +$82.06 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $151.62 | $288.19 | +$136.57 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 EdZacharyCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $110.27 | $176.43 | +$77.19 | 40% 94-142 (236) |
 debasedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $7.78 | $12.45 | +$5.45 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.05 | $0.15 | +$0.15 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$232.79
Value
$314.85
PnL
+$82.06
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$151.62
Value
$288.19
PnL
+$136.57
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$110.27
Value
$176.43
PnL
+$77.19
Record
40%
94-142 (236)
debasedCTR<$100Invested
$7.78
Value
$12.45
PnL
+$5.45
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.15
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.