Consensus PnL $1.4M · win rate 46% (693–815, n=1508) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 63 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4M
Record
693W / 815L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 1508 settled
Batting Avg
57.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1943
Source
PM monthly #982 + pinned
Trades
931,563
Markets
4,194
Volume
$236.4M
Top consensus positions
63 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 63 on the consensus side (59%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $381K · now 81¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $34K · now 96¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $11K · now 84¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $8.7K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- New pandemic in 2026?No $7.5K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $6.6K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $5.0K · now 6¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $4.0K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
Specialties
1,303 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 36¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 61% of 178 · avg entry 57¢
ROI 0%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 46% of 85 · avg entry 41¢
ROI 0%
- NFL
+12 pts
side won 45% of 22 · avg entry 33¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 22% of 403 at an average 22¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 60%(won 4% of 778)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 47% of 62)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 63% of 59)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 96% of 404)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.