Consensus PnL $320K · win rate 43% (96–128, n=224) · was PM monthly #366 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$319.5K
Record
96W / 128L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 224 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2044
Source
PM monthly #366
Trades
40
Markets
247
Volume
$5.6M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 14 on the consensus side (71%)- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Commanders $42K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Under $21K · now 55¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (21% of 15)
- Cardinals vs. CowboysCardinals $15K · now 26¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?No $12K · now 88¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (20% of 10)
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins $11K · now 55¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (36% of 12)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 40.5Under $8.4K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $4.6K · now 24¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets $3.9K · now 51¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Raiders)
Specialties
101 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 52¢- NBA
+51 pts
side won 98% of 46 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +55%
- NFL
+51 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +53%
- College Football
+48 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 89% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 95% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 100% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.