Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 24¢ · $505 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$504.74
-$19.59
25.1¢ → 24¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $239.72 | +$25.55 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $213.21 | $149.76 | -$49.51 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $70.37 | $83.07 | +$12.7 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $33.64 | $25.19 | -$8.45 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $6.6 | $6.38 | +$0.12 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
Invested
$4.2
Value
$239.72
PnL
+$25.55
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$213.21
Value
$149.76
PnL
-$49.51
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$70.37
Value
$83.07
PnL
+$12.7
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$33.64
Value
$25.19
PnL
-$8.45
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.38
PnL
+$0.12
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.