Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.6K
$83.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 88¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$68.1 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
ML mlbmanCTR | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $119.75 | $122.79 | +$1.43 | 54% 474-411 (885) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $5.8 | $39.08 | +$3.99 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $7 | $30.58 | +$8.53 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 solwizzo-onXCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.97 | $3.75 | +$1.73 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,345.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$68.1
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$119.75
Value
$122.79
PnL
+$1.43
Record
54%
474-411 (885)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$39.08
PnL
+$3.99
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$7
Value
$30.58
PnL
+$8.53
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$1.73
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.