Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.8K
-$50.09
97.5¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
36 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR Dreamwire | Noavg 97¢ | $892.39 | $1.6K | +$18.15 | 83% 2683-538 (3221) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.9¢ | $651.69 | $599.16 | -$7.06 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yes | $530.12 | $530.12 | -$115.11 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $5.4 | $59.4 | +$54 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $16.35 | $16.28 | -$0.07 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$892.39
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$18.15
Record
83%
2683-538 (3221)
Invested
$651.69
Value
$599.16
PnL
-$7.06
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$530.12
Value
$530.12
PnL
-$115.11
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$54
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$16.35
Value
$16.28
PnL
-$0.07
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.