Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.4K
-$145.58
90¢ → 91.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZE zerosmart | Noavg 90¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$33.25 | — |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$179.7 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $40.23 | $41.08 | +$0.85 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.35 | $15.38 | +$0.03 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $4.57 | $4.56 | -$0 | — 12-2 (14) |
Invested
$2,248.94
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$33.25
Record
—
Invested
$1,275.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$179.7
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$40.23
Value
$41.08
PnL
+$0.85
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Invested
$15.35
Value
$15.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$0
Record
—
12-2 (14)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.