Consensus PnL $876K · win rate 49% (61–64, n=125) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$875.8K
Record
61W / 64L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 125 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1854
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
304
Markets
152
Volume
$2.9M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 11 on the consensus side (64%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $37K · now 72¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $18K · now 73¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $12K · now 44¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (77% of 35)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $8.7K · now 26¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (45% of 40)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $6.1K · now 41¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $6.1K · now 72¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $1.4K · now 49¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (63% of 27)
- Blue wave in 2026?Yes $819 · now 88¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 46¢- Elections
+8 pts
side won 40% of 45 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +41%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 50% of 12 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 54% of 26 at an average 60¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 13% of 45)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 37% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 60% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 91% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.