Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$8.8K
$51.48
92.8¢ → 83¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $9.0K | $7.6K | $-1.4K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $217.56 | $479.63 | +$343.92 | 39% 29-45 (74) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $120 | $360 | +$240 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 73.5¢ | $353.65 | $223.64 | +$868.73 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 78.7¢ | $133.79 | $142.7 | +$8.91 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $8.25 | $9.35 | +$1.1 | 100% 32-0 (32) |
Invested
$9,019.01
Value
$7.6K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$217.56
Value
$479.63
PnL
+$343.92
Record
39%
29-45 (74)
Invested
$120
Value
$360
PnL
+$240
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
Invested
$353.65
Value
$223.64
PnL
+$868.73
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$133.79
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$8.91
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$9.35
PnL
+$1.1
Record
100%
32-0 (32)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.