Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$13.9K
$69.72
96¢ → 97.2¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $9.6K | $9.3K | -$16.18 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 94.6¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | +$52.5 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$20.83 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $388.2 | $370 | -$18.2 | 40% 396-590 (986) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $124.34 | $190.45 | +$30.78 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$9,639.9
Value
$9.3K
PnL
-$16.18
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$52.5
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$1,190
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$20.83
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
Invested
$388.2
Value
$370
PnL
-$18.2
Record
40%
396-590 (986)
Invested
$124.34
Value
$190.45
PnL
+$30.78
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.