Consensus PnL $183K · win rate 38% (360–592, n=952) · was PM monthly #892 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$182.7K
Record
360W / 592L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 952 settled
Batting Avg
43.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2122
Source
PM monthly #892
Trades
7,329
Markets
1,375
Volume
$20.4M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 6 on the consensus side (17%)- Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on November 1?Yes $285 · now 4¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 2?No $37 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 26-November 1?Yes $26 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $22 · now 0¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?Yes $21 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: OtherYes $18 · now 0¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
Specialties
507 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 31¢- Tennis
+29 pts
side won 61% of 312 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +11%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 59% of 29 · avg entry 24¢
ROI +15%
- Entertainment
+6 pts
side won 8% of 13 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 0% of 15 at an average 7¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 53%(won 21% of 268)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 82% of 104)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 83% of 78)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 91% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.